BCSKnowHow’s simulation puts Georgia No. 1 in the BCS rankings ahead of Utah and Notre Dame before Tuesday night’s second College Football Playoff rankings reveal. Georgia carries a 0.9694 score, the highest in the simulation, with Utah at 0.9326 and Notre Dame at 0.8868.
CBS Sports published the simulated standings from BCSKnowHow ahead of the committee’s second top 25. The scores apply the old BCS formula to the current field, while CBS Sports also projects how the committee may rank several teams.
The BCS era ran from 1998 through 2013. Its formula combined the Harris Interactive Poll, the Coaches Poll and a composite of computer rankings.
Key Takeaways
- Georgia leads the simulated standings at 0.9694, ahead of Utah at 0.9326 and Notre Dame at 0.8868.
- Alabama is sixth at 0.7878, but CBS Sports expects the committee to view the Crimson Tide more favorably than the computers do.
- South Carolina hosts Georgia in two weeks after playing Arkansas this weekend.
What the Simulated BCS Standings Show at the Top
| Rank | Team | BCS score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 0.9694 |
| 2 | Utah | 0.9326 |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 0.8868 |
| 4 | UCLA | 0.8524 |
| 5 | Miami | 0.8257 |
| 6 | Alabama | 0.7878 |
Georgia’s 0.9694 score follows a dominant start at Ole Miss, where CBS Sports says the Bulldogs opened a 35-0 lead. CBS Sports projects Georgia as No. 1 in the committee’s second rankings as well.
The Bulldogs’ remaining SEC schedule includes Missouri and South Carolina.
Utah jumped five places to No. 2 after beating BYU, according to the simulation. CBS Sports says the Utes have the inside track to a Big 12 Championship Game berth and a top-four CFP seed if they continue winning.
Devon Dampier is described as a dark-horse Heisman candidate who could gain notice if Utah reaches conference championship weekend at 12-0.
Notre Dame ranks third at 0.8868 after a 31-24 win over Miami in Week 10. CBS Sports expects the Fighting Irish to move inside the top five of the committee’s rankings Tuesday night. Miami, which played without top offensive playmaker Malachi Toney, is fifth at 0.8257.
UCLA sits fourth at 0.8524 as one of two unbeaten teams in the simulated field. The Bruins’ ninth straight win came at Minnesota, and CBS Sports says the result kept them in the Big Ten driver’s seat.
Alabama is sixth at 0.7878 after a statement win at LSU. CBS Sports expects the committee to rank the Crimson Tide higher than the computers do, especially after that result. Alabama’s remaining regular-season opponents are Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn.
How the BCS Formula Produces a Score
The BCS assigned equal weight to the Harris Interactive Poll, the Coaches Poll and a computer composite. The computer component blended Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin and Wolfe into one value. Those inputs produced each team’s BCS score and ordered the top 25.
The AP poll replaced the Harris poll in the formula in 2004. Before that change, schedule strength, quality wins and other subjective factors also shaped the standings, according to CBS Sports.
The simulation applies that structure to the current season, using the same three components to generate a composite score for every team.
Where the Selection Committee Diverges From the BCS Rankings
CBS Sports projects Georgia as the committee’s No. 1 team Tuesday night, matching the simulated result. The projection differs lower in the top six, most notably with Alabama.
Alabama is the clearest gap. The computers place the Crimson Tide sixth, while CBS Sports expects the committee to favor Alabama more heavily after its win at LSU.
Notre Dame should move into the top five, and Miami is expected to land near its No. 5 position in the simulation. The computers do not account for the absence of an impact player such as Malachi Toney, CBS Sports notes.
Miami lost to Notre Dame without its top offensive playmaker, a factor the simulated score cannot measure.
Tennessee’s placement relative to Alabama should be much closer than last week’s eight-spot difference, according to CBS Sports. The Vols beat Kentucky by 28 points, while the Wildcats fell to No. 13 in the simulated standings.
The Wider Field and Georgia’s Next Step
Indiana fell to No. 7 while idle, as eight of the nine Big Ten teams on its schedule lost last weekend. The Hoosiers host USC this weekend in a game that affects the CFP race and Big Ten title chase.
Ohio State dropped to No. 20 after consecutive losses to USC and Oregon; the Buckeyes were No. 2 in the simulated standings two weeks earlier.
Ole Miss is No. 17, the highest of four three-loss teams, but the committee is likely to place the Rebels lower after a 35-point home loss to Georgia.
LSU is No. 21 and South Carolina No. 22.
CBS Sports expects the Gamecocks to rank higher this week after their fourth straight win and LSU’s home loss to Alabama.
Texas owns four ranked wins, the most in college football, after beating Missouri. CBS Sports says the Longhorns could lose Saturday at LSU and still make the CFP bracket with nine wins. Texas is No.
8 in the simulation.
South Carolina must beat Arkansas this weekend before hosting Georgia in two weeks. The second CFP rankings reveal is set for Tuesday night.
